FNB – Outlook on Residential Property
HIGHLIGHTS of House Price Index in Fourth Quarter 2020 (4Q2020)
- The House Price Index shows growth of 3.5% from 4Q2019.
- National weighted average house price was N$ 1 240 943. (2019: N$ 1 154 468)
- Average age of home buyers has declined from 51 years in 2010 to 39 years in 2020.
- Women are gaining prominence in both the first and second-time buyer segments.
The housing market is making a much more pronounced recovery than most other segments of the economy. This points to the resilience of the housing market and the economic importance of housing in general.
Female buyers are becoming increasingly prevalent. Homes priced between N$ 1.5m and N$ 3.5m are expected to remain relatively attractive to investors in 2021 and beyond, depending on the interest rate. The acceleration of land servicing requires a continued political will and smart partnership between the local authorities and financial institutions.
Affordability continues to be concentrated within the small housing segment despite reflecting a slight decrease in the share of volumes traded from 82% in 2019 to 81% in 2020. The medium housing segment, however, increased its volume share from 15% in 2019 to 17% in 2020. This could be ascribed to sales of high-value properties at prices below valuation. Central Namibia
Home prices decreased 3.1% y/y compared to 3.8% y/y recorded over the same period of 2019. On average, a house is now priced at N$ 1 567 000. Average house prices in Windhoek came in at N$ 1 132 000 at the end of December 2020, showing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.9% and year-on-year contraction of 2.1%. Okahandja and Gobabis house prices contracted by 7.0% and 3.1% y/y over the same period to N$ 774 000 and N$ 677 000, respectively.
In terms of volume, the index for the central region edged up by 30.5% y/y by end December 2020 compared to -29.4% y/y in 2019. This rebound was mainly driven by the medium and large housing segments which spurred growth of 52.6% and 71.3% y/y respectively, compared to contractions of 40.0% and 26.9% y/y in the prior period.Coast
The index posted growth of 10.6% y/y by end 2020, compared to 5.2% y/y realized a year ago. This brought the average house price to N$ 1 248 000 at the end of 2020. The medium and large housing segments registered volume growth of 92.2% and 43.2% y/y, respectively. North
The index took a dip of -1.6% y/y in December 2020 compared to a growth of 5.8% in 2019. On average, a home cost N$ 820 000 at the end of 2020 versus N$ 833 000 in 2019. Most business activity had slowed by the end of 2020. There is optimism in terms of affordable land delivery and housing, particularly within the middle-income class. The volumes in the northern region outperformed the rest of the regions, reaching 32.8% y/y at the end of 2020. South
The house index showed growth of 20.4% y/y in December 2020 compared to a contraction of 4.7% in 2019. Thus, the average house price increased from N$ 714 000 to N$ 926 000. Of interest is that, for the first time since
2015, men have been overtaken by women in terms of volumes traded in 2020 with 34% and 30% of transaction volumes recorded in favour of women and men, respectively. Furthermore, the percentage share of joint bonds registered in this region has trended downwards from 68% in 2011 to 37% in 2020. Women have been the major buyers in the South, implying that most property developments in this region are mainly destined for investment purposes rather than for family-related reasons.Land Delivery
The pace of land delivery started off well in 2020 with a year-on-year growth of 86.2% recorded in January. However, the momentum slackened towards the end of the year, with only 6.9% y/y growth achieved at the end of December 2020 compared to 50.6% y/y in 2019. Urban land delivery is vital in addressing the housing backlog and has been outlined as one of the priority interventions of Harambe Prosperity Plan II. This plan promises to deliver 24 000 erven over the next five years covering Windhoek, Walvis Bay, Otjiwarongo, Gobabis, Eenhana, Ongwediva, Ondangwa, Oshakati and Rundu.Frans Uusiku
Market Research Manager